I’m sitting in Baltimore watching CNN and they are reporting that the Dow is falling as the debt ceiling looms and negotiations have stalled. They are making the case that it is precisely because of the debt problem. And, while I do not doubt that the debt is a strong factor I think the sputtering GDP is an even stronger reason.
Which do you think is more of a reason for traders sell at this time, the debt or the GDP?
Now that I have dipped my feet into Google+ for a couple hours it is definitely apparent that something big is about to change in social media. Google+ marks the end of “The Friend Era.” To get to the bottom of this theory let’s start at the beginning: Myspace.
Myspace was not so long ago tagged as “A Place for Friends.” The concept of friends was great in the old days of social media. Myspace was taking the real life connections that any person has and mimicking them on the internet. You could do all the same things that you could do in real life; chat, share photos, show-off, write in a journal or diary, etc.
The big thing with Myspace was that you could shut off the outside world very easily by only allowing “friends,” or people you actually know, see what you are doing on the site. These “friend” connections are technically speaking a two-way connection that links the data of two separate nodes. In order to have the connection work it has to be two-way, like in referential databases. So what changed?
A lot of you will likely say, “Facebook killed Myspace.” And, while that maybe true, Facebook did not change the game when it comes to online connections. Facebook merely had a better design, more fun ways to share information and other little things that people found extremely useful. Facebook tried to change the way connections work though.
On Facebook there are two functions that are somewhat half-baked and not fully utilized by many users. The first is “friend lists.” Yes, friend lists. You may have never heard of it. It is a little function that let’s you group your friends in lists like “family,” “college roomies,” and “coworkers.” Now, this functionality has some good benefits like being able to share certain info with only certain groups friends, but Facebook has not made it very easy to do this. So, most people do not use it.
The other function is “groups.” Obviously there are many more people that use groups. That is primarily because Facebook took it’s old group concept and molded it into the more meaningful one it currently employs. The new groups are somewhat useful, but still underutilized by many.
So, how is Google+ different? Why is it going to change the game? First, let’s talk about Twitter.
Twitter began the revolution. On Twitter you can “follow” anyone. You can follow your friends, colleagues, crushes and even celebrities. However, they do not have to follow you. This is a very big deal. You can have a one-way connection and they can shrug you off whenever they want. You may love them, they may never know you exist. It’s perfect, it’s how life really is.
Now, let’s compare Facebook and Twitter for a second. Obviously these are two very different social networks with their own strengths and weaknesses. However, in terms of social connections they are totally different. Like I said before, Facebook requires two-way connections while Twitter allows one-way connections. This difference is fundamental to the infrastructure of each network. For example, how many celebrities have two profiles on Twitter? Not many. Why would they? There is little reason to. How about on Facebook? Yes, many celebrities and other well known people have two profiles. One is of course the normal “profile” we all have, the other is a “page” where we all can go “like” them.
Facebook has to have these different types of “profiles” and “pages” because profiles require two-way connections. Profiles are where you and your friends can share info, and pages are for companies, bands and celebrities to share with you whatever they want. But, what if every connection was just one-way?
Enter Google+. Instead of making two-way connections like on Facebook, Google decided to take a cue from Twitter and use one-way connections. That is why on Google+ you can simply place whoever you want in different “circles.” You name the circles whatever you want and just place them there. The interesting thing is that they have no idea what circle you put them in. They just know that you put them in a circle. Therefore, you could easily put a connection in an “acquaintance” circle while he or she puts you in a “friend” circle. Really though, it does not matter. And, again, this is how real life is!
So, is this really the end of “The Friends Era?” Maybe not, but I think one thing will likely change, Facebook. If Google+ really takes off Facebook will have no other choice than to change the way it connects users. In terms of social media in general there are some things you may never share with just anyone; like where you are this very second on Foursquare. But, do not worry Google+ makes it very easy to share exactly what you want with who you want. And, frankly, they may not even care.
Debt Deal Won’t Save the Economy
A couple days ago Drudge had a link to an article that indicated the Obama administration was hoping that markets would have dropped this last Monday morning. Thus forcing lawmakers to act swiftly in reaching an agreement on the nations absurd debt problem. However, that never happened. There was no drop and obviously no agreement was reached until late last night.
Instead of a heavy drop the markets just continued a steady decline all week. Led, in part, by the updates in previous quarter GDP growth. Simply put, the economy is in complete stagflation.
At that time I posted an short blurb about how I thought the economy was less tied to the debt deal and it’s progress, and more tied to the sluggish economy. It seems I was more than right.
Today CNBC has an article, “Stocks Slump on ISM News, Euro Zone Jitters,” about todays drop in the markets and therein you find this little nugget…
“Unbeknownst to what many of our trusted lawmakers may like to believe, the poor readings on the economy are not exclusive to the debt drama,” Todd Schoenberger, managing director of LandColt Trading told CNBC. “If they woke up this morning thinking trading would be a cakewalk and investors would parade Congress on their shoulders as a result of this so-called deal, they are clearly mistaken.”
Just as I thought. This whole debt deal is a complete sham. It means crap in the grand scheme of things. The markets do not buy what Washington is saying about how not passing a debt deal will lead to an automatic default. They know that is an outright lie. They know the Obama administration is just shoving crap into the minds of the American public. They know that a default is only possible if the government does not pay it’s debt obligations. Lucky for Washington they have the cash flow to deliver on those obligations, but Obama will never tell you that outright.
The economy is in the ER because of a terrible housing market, unemployment, Eurozone jitters and more. The debt deal was only a little grain of sand on a sand pile amounting to nearly 15 trillion pieces. Too bad it will not fix anything, just prolong the bleeding.